Micron Stock Forecast as MU Extends Its Decline After a 17.46% Plunge (NASDAQ:MU)

Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) closed Friday, November 6, at $690.00, up 5.12%, after a 17.46% plunge on Thursday to $656.39 that was the lowest close of the past 50 sessions. The stock has now fallen 33.24% from its October 28 close of $983.23 and sits 43.12% below its record close of about $1,213 from June 25. Thursday's drop came on about 77.9 million shares, nearly three times the recent average, as AI-linked stocks were sold across the board and a report said Micron had suspended plans for a $4.5 billion memory-chip plant in Taiwan. Friday's rebound faded during the session, with the stock opening 7.92% higher and closing near the low end of its range. This article walks through the decline, what Micron has reported, what the chart shows and how bulls and bears are reading the setup.

 

Micron's most important announcement of the quarter came on September 30, when it reported fiscal fourth-quarter results for the period ended September 3. Revenue was $54.23 billion, up 379% from $11.32 billion a year earlier and up 31% from the prior quarter. GAAP net income was $37.70 billion, or $32.87 per diluted share. For the full fiscal year, revenue was $133.19 billion, up 256% from $37.38 billion, and GAAP net income was $84.97 billion.

The outlook was larger still. Micron guided fiscal first-quarter 2027 revenue to $61.5 billion, plus or minus $1.5 billion, against a consensus estimate near $56.8 billion, with non-GAAP gross margin of about 86.25% and non-GAAP EPS of $38.15, plus or minus $1.00. Management said it expects fiscal 2027 to be another record year, with sequential revenue growth each quarter, and CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said the company expects an even stronger fiscal 2027 than fiscal 2026. DRAM revenue reached a record $39.8 billion in the quarter, and NAND revenue reached a record $14.1 billion.

Two items arrived this week. On Thursday morning, before the open, a report said Micron had suspended plans to build a $4.5 billion memory-chip plant in northern Taiwan following a labor dispute with employees, a facility that had been planned as a hub for DRAM and high-bandwidth memory production. Micron's next earnings report is expected in December.

 

The decline did not begin on Thursday. Micron closed at $983.23 on October 28, and then slid 4.98% on October 29, 5.30% on October 30 and 5.78% on November 2. It gained 2.58% on November 3 to $855.10 and fell 7.00% on November 4 to $795.23 as investors reassessed AI infrastructure spending after the midterm election results, including Democratic wins in Texas that raised questions about data-center construction.

Thursday was the break. Micron opened at $752.69, reached a high of $761.81 and fell to a low of $650.00 before closing at $656.39, a one-day drop of $138.84 on volume of about 77.9 million shares. The decline matched AMD's 17.3% and Marvell's 17%, while SanDisk fell about 22%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell more than 12%, its biggest one-day decline since April 2025.

The broader market was just as weak. The S&P 500 fell 4.36% to 7,353.73 and the Nasdaq Composite fell 5.52% to 24,315.00, which left it 11.9% below its record and in correction territory. Both indexes had their worst day since April 2025, and all eleven sectors of the S&P 500 closed lower.

Friday brought a bounce that did not hold. Micron opened at $708.35, 7.92% above Thursday's close, rose to a high of $724.80, fell to a low of $676.00 and closed at $690.00, near the lower end of the day's range. The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.09% to 24,579.42 as buyers returned to chip stocks.

 

The chart story is a steep, accelerating decline. Between the October 28 close of $983.23 and Thursday's close of $656.39, Micron lost 33.24%, and it has lost 38.37% since the September 30 close of $1,065.11. Thursday's low of $650.00 was $132.00 below the previous lowest low of the window, $782.00 on November 4, and Thursday's close was $138.84 below the prior lowest close.

 

 

The averages show how far the stock has fallen. Calculated from daily closes, the 20-day simple moving average sits near $879.01 and the 50-day near $961.64, which places Friday's close about 21.50% and 28.25% below them. The stock closed above $900 on 40 of the 50 sessions in the window, and Thursday's close was below every close of the period.

The ranges explain why the move was so hard to trade. Thursday's range from $650.00 to $761.81 equaled about 17.0% of the close, nearly four times the 50-session average of about 4.4%, and November 4 followed at about 9.0%. Friday's range of $676.00 to $724.80 equaled about 7.1% of the close. Twenty-one of the last 49 daily closes moved 3% or more in either direction, and twelve moved 5% or more.

Friday's session added a second signal. Micron gapped up 7.92% at the open, yet it closed at only 28.7% of the day's range and 2.59% below its opening price, so most of the early strength was given back. Volume was about 44.9 million shares, 1.58 times the 30-session average. The stock's 52-week range runs from $192.59 to $1,255.00, so even after the decline it trades well above the bottom of that range.

 

The valuation reset reading. Bulls point out that the price now sits at a very low multiple of earnings. Trailing price-to-earnings is near 9.3, and forward price-to-earnings has fallen below 4 by several measures, the lowest in a year. They note that fiscal fourth-quarter revenue rose 379%, that guidance calls for $61.5 billion in the next quarter and that management expects sequential growth each quarter of fiscal 2027. The consensus rating among 49 analysts is Strong Buy, with an average 12-month target of $1,561.91, and Rosenblatt maintained a Buy rating with a $1,900 target on October 22.

The cycle concerns reading. Bears point out that memory is a cyclical business, that profits depend on prices that can swing sharply and that Wall Street has long been hesitant to pay high multiples for memory stocks because of that pattern. They also note that Thursday's drop came with concerns about data-center construction, that a Taiwan plant has been suspended and that the stock sits 21.50% below its 20-day average with a failed rebound on Friday. Under this view, a low multiple reflects the market pricing in a peak in memory earnings rather than a bargain.

Both camps are reading the same numbers. The disagreement is whether a stock trading below 4 times forward earnings is signaling a reset in expectations or a cycle that investors believe has already peaked.

Traders watching Micron should separate three kinds of risk. The first is sector risk. Micron fell 17.46% on a day when the whole AI complex fell, and its path depends on how chip and memory stocks trade as a group. The debate about data-center spending after the midterm elections is not settled.

The second is volatility risk. The stock has moved 3% or more on 21 of the last 49 sessions, and Thursday's range of about 17.0% shows how quickly conditions can change. A rebound that opens 7.92% higher and closes near the low of its range shows how unstable intraday trading has become.

The third is level risk. The November 5 low of $650.00 and the November 4 close of $795.23 are visible on any chart, so reactions near them can be sharp. Context matters too. Even after the decline, the stock trades far above its 52-week low of $192.59. This article is informational and is not financial advice.

Micron ended a brutal week with a 5.12% bounce that did not hold, after a 17.46% plunge took the stock to its lowest close of the past 50 sessions and 43.12% below its June record. The fundamentals are extraordinary, with fiscal fourth-quarter revenue up 379% and guidance for $61.5 billion in the next quarter, but the market is questioning how long memory profits can last. The next earnings report is expected in December. Do you think the plunge marks a reset in valuation, or is the memory cycle telling investors something the earnings do not yet show?

A: Micron fell 17.46% to $656.39 as AI-linked stocks were sold across the board, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down more than 12%, and as a report said Micron had suspended plans for a $4.5 billion Taiwan plant.

A: The $690.00 close is about 43% below the record close of roughly $1,213 from June 25, 2026, and 45% below the 52-week intraday high of $1,255.00.

A: Revenue was $54.23 billion, up 379% from a year earlier, and GAAP net income was $37.70 billion, or $32.87 per diluted share.

A: Micron expects revenue of $61.5 billion, plus or minus $1.5 billion, and non-GAAP EPS of $38.15, plus or minus $1.00.

A: Calculated from daily closes, the 20-day average is near $879.01 and the 50-day near $961.64, so the close sits about 21.50% and 28.25% below them.