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On September 1st, the US stock market closed with all three major indexes falling: the Nasdaq fell 1.03%, the S & P 500 fell 0.70%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.79%. Pressure came from On September 1st, the US stock market closed with all three major indexes falling: the Nasdaq fell 1.03%, the S & P 500 fell 0.70%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.79%. Pressure came from

Pre-Market Briefing on Sep 2: Broadcom (AVGO) Reports Tonight – Can It Deliver on Its $16B AI Guidance?

#US Stocks

2026/09/02 15:21

On September 1st, the US stock market closed with all three major indexes falling: the Nasdaq fell 1.03%, the S & P 500 fell 0.70%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.79%. Pressure came from the surge in crude oil and the rise in the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds to about 4.79%. However, on the same day, energy was rising - the star of the day was Chevron (CVX), which rose 2.38% in a single day to close at $211.05, while Schlumberger (SLB), which also belongs to the energy sector, fell 4.91%. Today, the US stock school is dismantling advanced packaging: the final process of AI chips that really get stuck, and each of the five links is its own business.Tonight at 20:00 UTC, Broadcom (AVGO) released its Q3 financial report, and its own guidance for AI semiconductor revenue for the quarter is $16 billion. The data in this article is based on the closing of the US stock market on September 1st.

1.Today's market: all three major indexes fell, with Nasdaq falling the most

On September 1st, all three major US stock indexes fell. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 1.03% to close at 26,099.77 points, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.79% to close at 52,766.88 points, and the S & P 500 Index fell 0.70% to close at 7,632.60 points.

Two forces weighed on the market that day: crude oil surged , and the 10-year Treasury yield rose to about 4.79% .

The second factor is worth mentioning because it explains why the Nasdaq has fallen the most.

Interest rate is the denominator of valuation. The value of a company can be understood as the sum of its future cash flows converted to today; the ratio used for conversion follows the market interest rate. When interest rates rise, the same cash in ten years will become thinner when converted back to today.

So the days when interest rates go up, the more companies that bet their value on the distant future, the more they are hurt . These companies are the most in the Constituent Stock of the Nasdaq, and the least in the Dow - the decline order of the three indices follows this logic.

And on the same day, energy is rising. This is not a contradiction, it is two sides of the same thing: The moment oil prices go up, it is income for companies with barrels, cost for companies that use oil, and pressure for companies that rely on low interest rates to support their valuations .

A daily reading: When you see the index falling, don't stop at "how much did it fall," go see who the money has moved from whose pocket to who .

2.Today's Star: Chevron (CVX) rose 2.38%, but ranked only 33rd in the industry

The star of the day on Sept. 1 was Chevron (CVX), an integrated oil company with a market capitalization of $414 billion. It closed the day at $211.05, up 2.38% .

The cause is very direct: WTI crude oil rose more than 5% in a single day, standing on $90 , the source is the shipping risk brought by the escalation of the Middle East conflict.

Let's first look at its position in the five dimensions.

Three highs, one medium and one low.

The three dimensions of fullness are: Volatility Control 100, Industry Valuation Temperature 97, Trend Position 95 In plain language, it is the smallest level of volatility in this type of asset, and the price has already stood at the high point of its one-year range - only 1.7% away from the 52-week high.

The relative strength of the industry is 57 , medium.

The weakest dimension is the industry ranking 33 : 8 companies in the same industry rose more than it that day.

This combination is worth stopping and thinking about. A stock that rose 2.38% on the same day, with a price close to a one-year high and perfect volatility control, only scored 33 points in the industry ranking. It seems contradictory, but it is actually three different things.

Wave control refers to whether it shakes or not, which is a long-term statistical feature.
Trend position refers to how far it is from its own high point, which is vertical and compared with itself;
The industry ranking only talks about "who rose more today", which is a horizontal and single-day comparison.

Separating these three dimensions is the most practical habit of using five-dimensional scoring. Only looking at the ranking, it will be considered weak today; only looking at the trend position, it will be considered strong; looking at the three together, you will know its true situation is "stable, expensive, but not the one that has risen the most today".

Money perspective: Market value is about $9.60 billion more a day

The closing price was $211.05, up 2.38% in a single day, and the market value was about 9.60 billion dollars more in one day.

It is worth noting that the trading volume is the same as the recent average . This means that the increase comes from pricing, not volume - not a large number of new buying orders pouring in, but the original holders have re-priced this batch of assets.

From a business perspective, it has its own bucket

Chevron is an integrated oil company that does everything from exploration and production to refining and sales, but the most critical point is that it has its own barrels .

For every $1 increase in oil prices, the upstream buys an extra $1 per barrel. This is the intuitive statement given by the card - it is not an exact profit calculation, but it is enough to explain why when the oil price moves, the stock price of such companies immediately follows suit.

However, there are two limitations that must be remembered at the same time:

First, this round of increase comes from Supply Risk Premium. The market is pricing in the possibility of not being able to supply, while The actual selling price and production volume will not be reported until next quarter's financial report Today's stock price reaction and the numbers that will eventually be written into the income statement are two different things.

Second, the traffic situation in Hormuz is still updated daily. The characteristic of this type of Risk Premium is that it comes and goes quickly. It can be completely erased in a few days or it can continue up the ante.

3.Star of the Day: The same energy sector splits in half in one day

On the same day, under the same "energy" label, the performance of six companies was as follows:

Chevron + 2.38%, ExxonMobil + 2.25%, Phillips 66 + 2.21%, Baker Hughes + 0.17%, Halliburton -0.14%, Schlumberger -4.91% .

On a day when oil prices surged, the largest oil service company in the energy sector fell nearly 5% .

The dividing line is not an industry label, it's about selling barrels or services.

Divide the energy into three layers, and this matter becomes immediately clear.

Upstream/integrated (Chevron, ExxonMobil): own barrels, oil prices are directly income . Oil prices rise, income side immediately benefit.
Refining (Phillips 66): Buying crude oil, selling refined oil, Crude oil is its cost . Rising oil prices may not be a good thing for it, it depends on whether refined oil prices can follow suit - the so-called price difference.
Oil service equipment (Schlumberger, Halliburton, Baker Hughes): Revenue comes from oil companies' capital expenditures , not oil prices themselves.

The third layer is the most comprehensible layer today. The customers of oil service companies are oil companies, and their income comes from how much money oil companies are willing to spend on drilling and construction. Capital expenditure is a budget formulated on an annual basis, and it will not change just because oil prices rise for a day .

So the same news, the direction and time difference of the three layers are different: upstream benefits on the same day, refining depends on the price difference, oil service has to wait for the next round of budget of oil companies .

On the same day, the average value of the integrated oil enterprise sector was + 0.95% , and the average value of the oil service equipment sector was -1.95% , and the same sector opened up 2.9 percentage points .

Supporting role: the other end of the same barrel of oil

Delta Air Lines (DAL) fell 2.08% that day.

With the same barrel of oil, Chevron is on the revenue side, Delta is on the cost side - Jet fuel is the second largest cost for airlines. There is a reason for each rise and fall.

Put these three examples together (with barrels, refining, and burning oil), and you get a judgment that can be reused every day: When you see a big move in the price of a commodity, draw a chain first and see at which end of the chain each company stands . The same message can go in completely opposite directions at different positions in the chain.

4. US stock Learning: The AI chip stuck is the last process

This Wednesday's US stock school is a track disassembly, the theme is advanced packaging .

The point of entry is an easily overlooked thing: the wafer is done well, just work in progress.

A modern AI chip is not a piece of silicon, it is several pieces of silicon stacked together - next to the computing core is high-bandwidth memory, connected by extremely thin wires in the middle, and finally sealed into a finished product that can be inserted into the cabinet. This process of "stacking, connecting, and sealing" is the most crowded part of the entire chain this year.

The same AI demand falls on five completely different businesses in this chain.

Upstream · Equipment: Applied Materials (AMAT) · Market value approximately $350.8 billion

Selling machines. In the latest quarter, revenue reached a record high of $9.12 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25%. The new generation of grinding and coating equipment is specifically used to stack 12-layer and 16-layer high-bandwidth memory. Its customers are people who want to build production lines.

Upstream · Measurement and Testing: Onto Innovation (ONTO) · Market Value Approximately $12.80 billion

Selling "visible". The entire company has only 1,867 people , relying on optical measurement to find flaws inside the stack. The revenue in the latest quarter reached a record high of $343 million, and the order in hand exceeded $1 billion for the first time. Its customers are people who want yield - The chip is stacked more than a dozen layers, and if there is a problem and you can't see inside, the whole batch will be scrapped.

Midstream · Foundry and Packaging: TSMC (TSM) · Market value about $2.15 trillion

Selling capacity itself. Its CoWoS monthly capacity will be 120,000 to 140,000 pieces by the end of this year , the supply and demand gap has converged from about 20% to about 10%, and customers are still queuing. Its bargaining power comes from "can't be replaced".

Downstream · Packaging and testing OEM: Sunlight Investment Control (ASX) · Market value is about $82.30 billion

The hands that sell outsourcing. The capital expenditure is up the ante to $10.50 billion in 2026, and the advanced packaging revenue target is revised to more than $7.50 billion in 2027. Its customers are people who don't want to build their own factories.

Downstream · US Local: AMKR · Market value about 11.40 billion USD

The part that sells in the US. The revenue in the latest quarter 1.90 billion US dollars, an increase of 26% year-on-year, is a representative of moving advanced packaging and testing back to the US.

The same chain has been repriced more than twice as much

First, let me clarify the definition: Interval multiple = highest price ÷ lowest price in the past 52 weeks . It measures the magnitude of the repricing in the year, not the increase in the year, nor the rise and fall of the day .

The values are: TSMC 2.12 times, Onto Innovation 3.83 times, Anke Technology 4.14 times, Sunlight Investment Control 4.49 times, Applied Materials 4.79 times.

TSMC is the most stable, the more it goes to both ends of the chain, the bigger it is.

The reason is not difficult to think of: the order book of equipment and packaging and testing actually contains the customer's expansion plan . Every time the customer changes the budget, their revenue expectations will follow suit - and the expansion plan itself is the kind of number that is easiest to be revised up and down. TSMC sells the already built production capacity, and the demand is queued up, so the rhythm is the most stable.

The same demand, when placed in different stages, results in different business rhythms.

5.Get to know a company: AMKR and the park that won't start production until 2028

The company I met today is AMKR.

It is the last mile of the chip.

Founded in 1968, headquartered in Tempe, Arizona, US. What it does is not complicated: cut, stack, and seal the finished wafers into machine-ready products, and then test them one by one. Its customers are chip design companies and wafer foundries.

Revenue for the most recent quarter was $1.90 billion, up 26% year over year .

Gross profit margin increased by 4.8 percentage points in one year

Gross margin rose from 12.0% a year ago to 16.8% .

This change is more important than the numbers seem, because Packaging and testing is already a thin-margin business It is not the person who designs the chip, nor the person who owns the process. It provides a processing service, and the pricing space is naturally limited. On this basis, the annual increase of 4.8 percentage points reflects the shift of product structure from traditional packaging and testing to advanced packaging - For the same packaging and testing, the technical threshold of advanced packaging is higher, and the price that can be charged is also higher.

Potential and risk are on the same thing

An Kao is building a $7 billion advanced packaging and testing campus in Peoria, Arizona: 750,000 square feet of clean rooms and up to 3,000 jobs.

This is a key step for it to solidify the position of "advanced packaging and testing in the US".

But it won't go into production until early 2028.

This sentence must be read with the number 7 billion dollars. 7 billion It looks great on the title, but from today until early 2028, this money is a continuous expense, not income. During this period, the company will rely on existing businesses to support its investment.

Transferable judgment : When seeing a large investment, in addition to asking "how much was invested", be sure to ask " When will the money start to be collected ". The amount determines how big the story is, and the delivery time determines when it really affects the financial report. The answers to these two questions often differ by several years.

6.What to watch tonight: Broadcom hands in its papers, can 16 billion AI guidelines be fulfilled?

Tonight at 20:00 UTC after the US stock market closes, Broadcom (AVGO) will release its Q3 financial report, and the phone call will be held at 21:00 UTC .

Earlier, there were August ADP employment data at 12:15 UTC and the Fed Beige Book at 18:00 UTC. However, the real fixed star this week is the August non-farm employment report at 12:30 UTC on Friday , and these two macro data are its outposts tonight.

Broadcom is the "mold opening according to customer drawings" part

To understand tonight's financial report, we must first understand Broadcom's position in the AI chain.

It doesn't make a general-purpose GPU.

It designs custom AI acceleration chips (XPU) for cloud vendors, and then sells the matching exchange and network chips together into the cabinet.

The difference between these two things is crucial. A general-purpose GPU is "I design the strongest chip and sell it to everyone"; a custom XPU is "You tell me what model you want to run, and I design a chip that only serves you according to your needs". Cloud vendors draw their own architecture and hand it over to Broadcom to turn it into an energy-producing entity - Broadcom earns not "whose chip is stronger", but "who can make other people's designs" .

The company's own guidance for total revenue for the quarter is about $29.40 billion , a year-on-year increase of 84%.

Why only focus on the AI semiconductor industry?

AI semiconductor single quarter revenue: FY25Q4 6.50 billion , FY26Q1 8.40 billion , FY26Q2 10.80 billion , FY26Q3 company guidance 16 billion .

Pay special attention to the last one: it is the company's own quarterly guidance, not achieved performance or market expectations.

Three quarters from 6.50 billion to 10.80 billion, guidance to 16 billion - a steep curve. Last quarter's call mentioned that orders on hand have exceeded $30 billion and visibility is scheduled for 2028 .

So the key tonight is not whether there is demand, but whether this 16 billion can be delivered on schedule .

A distinction that can be taken away: When a company's order visibility has been scheduled for two years, the market's concern changes from "can it be sold" to "can it be done". The former is a demand issue, while the latter is a capacity and supply chain issue - the indicators that need to be looked at are completely different.

What should we specifically focus on tonight?

First, can AI semiconductors cash in 16 billion dollars this quarter? This is the number given by the company itself, and it will almost be magnified and interpreted.

Second, the next quarter guidance to which position. The management said that the visibility of orders has been arranged to 2028, this visibility will not be written into the guidance caliber, is the second point of view tonight.

III. The ratio of network chips to custom chips. In the last quarter's AI revenue, network chips accounted for nearly 40%. The management said that with the increase in the volume of custom chips, it will move towards 30% - whether this proportion has really moved can better explain the progress of the increase in volume than the total number.

7.Drill down: Which line pushed up the total growth rate of 48%?

Broadcom's total revenue last quarter was $22.20 billion, a year-on-year increase of 48%. This number looks healthy, but 48% is an average, and averages can mask structure .

Break it down: total revenue 22.20 billion = semiconductor 15 billion + software 7.20 billion ; and in semiconductors, 10.80 billion comes from AI .

Looking at the year-on-year growth rate of each line again:

AI Semiconductor (10.80 billion) + 143% , Semiconductor Division (15 billion) + 79% , Total Revenue (22.20 billion) + 48% , Software Division (7.20 billion) + 9% .

The software 7.20 billion only increased by 9%.

This is the truth behind 48%: the speed of the entire car is almost entirely driven by AI. Software accounts for one-third of total revenue, but hardly contributes to growth; it is like ballast, pulling down the overall growth rate from 143% to 48%.

This brings up a common reading: to look at a company's growth, first ask where the growth is concentrated.

High concentration has its advantages - clear direction and simple judgment. But it also means that any movement on that line will be magnified into a problem for the entire company For Broadcom, if there is a problem with the AI semiconductor line, 48% will instantly become single digits; conversely, as long as this line continues to run, the impact of software growth is actually limited.

That's why tonight it's 16 billion, not 29.40 billion.

8.Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Why did Schlumberger (SLB) fall nearly 5% on a day when oil prices surged?

Because it is not selling barrels, but services. The revenue of the oil service company comes from the capital expenditure of the oil companies, and the capital expenditure is budgeted on an annual basis and will not be changed just because the oil price rises for one day. On the same day, the average value of the integrated oil company sector with its own barrels increased by 0.95%, and the average value of the oil service equipment sector decreased by -1.95%. The same "energy" label increased by 2.9 percentage points.

Q2: Chevron (CVX) rose 2.38% on the same day, why is its industry ranking only 33 in the 5D rating?

Because the ranking of peers is based on "who has risen more in the same industry today", it is a horizontal and single-day comparison - there are 8 peers who have risen more than it on that day. This is not the same thing as controlling volatility (whether it usually shakes) and trend position (how far it is from its high point). Reading it together in three dimensions, we can know that its situation is "stable, expensive, but not the one that has risen the most today".

Q3: Why did the Nasdaq fall more than the Dow on days when interest rates were rising?

Because interest rates are the denominator of valuation. The value of a company can be understood as the sum of future cash flows converted to today. The higher the interest rate, the greater the loss for companies priced based on forward cash flows. This type of company has the most components in the Nasdaq and the least in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Therefore, the order of decline on September 1st is Nasdaq 1.03% > Dow 0.79% > S & P 0.70%.

Q4: What is advanced packaging? Why is it considered a bottleneck for AI chips?

Because making a good wafer is just work in progress. A modern AI chip consists of several pieces of silicon stacked together - high-bandwidth memory next to the computing core, connected by extremely thin wires in the middle. Stacking, connecting, and sealing them into a usable chip is advanced packaging. The production capacity of this process is in short supply this year: TSMC's CoWoS monthly production capacity will reach 120,000 to 140,000 chips by the end of this year, and the supply-demand gap will only converge from about 20% to about 10%.

Does the "interval multiple of 4.79 times" in the article mean that it has increased by 4.79 times this year?

No. The interval multiple is defined as the highest ÷ lowest price in the past 52 weeks, measuring the degree of repricing during the year, regardless of the direction of the rise or fall, and not equal to the compensation for holding for a year. A company whose stock price falls by half and then rises back will also have a large interval multiple.

Q6: Broadcom's 29.40 billion and 16 billion, are two statements of the same number?

No, the caliber of the two is completely different. 29.40 billion is the company's own guidance for the total revenue of the quarter, + 84% year-on-year; 16 billion is the company's guidance for the AI semiconductor single quarter revenue of the quarter, accounting for a little more than half of the 29.40 billion. Both are guidance, not achieved performance.

Q7: AMKR invests 7 billion dollars to build a park, why does the article repeatedly emphasize 2028?

Because the amount determines how big the story is, and the delivery time determines when it really affects the financial report. The park will not be put into production until early 2028, which means that from today until then, this 7 billion a continuous expenditure rather than income. When you see any large investment, besides asking how much was invested, be sure to ask when the money will start to be collected.

Disclaimer: This article is compiled and written by the MEXC RealStocks team . The data in this article is based on the closing of the US stock market on September 1, 2026; the content is compiled from public market information, and the individual stocks are the subject of public discussion, which does not represent the recommendation or opinion of MEXC and does not constitute any investment advice. More US stock content: @MEXC | @Alpha_MEXC | @MEXC_Research

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