SOFI Q3 2026 Earnings Preview: Fee Revenue, Credit Costs and Guidance

 

SoFi reports third-quarter results at approximately 7:00 a.m. Eastern Time on October 27, 2026, which is 19:00 in Singapore, with the conference call an hour later. As of this article's verification point the results have not been published, so what follows is the expectation set and the baseline data.

 

Consensus calls for earnings of $0.17 per share on revenue of $1.25 billion, growth of roughly 55% and roughly 30% respectively. The company has beaten EPS estimates for eleven consecutive quarters and exceeded revenue estimates for at least seven.

 

Yet the stock is down roughly 44% year to date, and two major banks cut their targets ahead of the print: KBW's Tim Switzer reiterated a Sell and lowered his target from $16 to $15, while Goldman Sachs' Will Nance kept a Hold and lowered his from $18 to $15. Both cited rates, specifically gain-on-sale ratios, deposit costs and the effect of fair value accounting on how achievable guidance is.

 

The timing adds a layer. The Federal Open Market Committee meets on October 27 and 28, with the rate decision published the following day. A rate-sensitive fintech therefore reports in the pre-market of the FOMC's first day, while the bear case rests precisely on the direction of rates.

 

This article sets out the second-quarter baseline, the second-half requirement implied by full-year guidance, and four metrics worth checking line by line.

 

 

 

Consensus calls for $0.17 in EPS on $1.25 billion of revenue. That implies roughly 55% and 30% year-over-year growth, against eleven consecutive quarters of EPS beats.

 

Second-quarter fee revenue growth came mostly from outside the loan platform business. Fee-based revenue rose 22.1% sequentially to $472.3 million, while loan platform fees rose only 1.9%, leaving the remainder up roughly 33.4%.

 

Credit costs improved rather than deteriorated in the second quarter. The annualised net charge-off rate on personal loans fell from 3.03% in the first quarter to 2.62%, with total loans down from 2.04% to 1.81%.

 

Full-year guidance implies slower second-half growth. Against first-half adjusted net revenue of $2.293 billion, the second half needs roughly $2.457 billion to $2.557 billion, or roughly $1.229 billion to $1.279 billion per quarter.

 

Consensus implies only about 3.7% sequential growth. The second quarter grew 10.9% sequentially, so the consensus figure already embeds a marked slowdown.

 

Options markets imply a post-earnings move of about 9.65%. The last four post-earnings moves averaged 9.08% in absolute terms, three of them declines ranging from 6.36% to 15.44%.

 

Deposits grew $5.3 billion in the second quarter to $45.5 billion. The average rate on interest-bearing deposits was 3.07%, with cost of funds down 36 basis points year over year.

 

 

Per SoFi's notice of September 29, 2026, third-quarter results will be published on its investor relations website at approximately 7:00 a.m. Eastern Time on October 27, with the conference call at 8:00 a.m. the same day. The audio webcast is at events.q4inc.com/attendee/781047887, phone access requires pre-registration, and a replay will be posted to the investor relations page afterwards.

 

Converted to Singapore time, that is roughly 19:00 for the release and 20:00 for the call.

 

 

The record behind those expectations: EPS beats for eleven consecutive quarters and revenue above estimates for at least seven. That record has detached from the share price, which is down roughly 44% year to date on concerns about the macro environment and the scale of investment spending.

 

The consensus rating is Moderate Buy with an average target of $20.47, implying roughly 40.05% upside, which puts the current price at roughly $14.62 by that arithmetic. Both pre-print revisions moved the same way though, with KBW cutting from $16 to $15 on a Sell and Goldman from $18 to $15 on a Hold.

 

Their specific concerns are worth recording, because they form the counter-hypothesis to test tonight. KBW expects higher rates to weigh on results and warns that fair value accounting could make guidance harder to meet. Goldman flags the effect of recent rate moves on gain-on-sale ratios, and higher deposit costs lowering what third-party buyers will pay for loans.

 

Those concerns coincide with the macro calendar. The FOMC meets on October 27 and 28 with the decision published October 28, while debate over the total extent of this hiking cycle continues. Results and the rate path will therefore be interpreted in the same week, and the post-earnings price reaction may contain both.

 

 

This is the item most worth separating out, because the phrase "fee revenue growth" conceals a change in internal structure.

 

 

The sequential changes and share figures above are this article's calculations from the two earnings releases, not figures the company disclosed.

 

The key finding is that the loan platform business was not the main source of second-quarter fee growth. Third-party personal loan originations under that business grew from $3.0 billion to $3.1 billion, or 3.3%, while the corresponding fees rose only 1.9%. Dividing the two gives an implied fee rate falling from roughly 4.61% to roughly 4.55%, a slight compression.

 

Almost all of the 22.1% fee growth therefore came from sources other than the loan platform, with that remainder up roughly 33.4% sequentially. For judging growth quality, this structure matters more than the total: fee growth resting on third-party loan origination swings with buyer demand and pricing, while growth across payments interchange, financial services and the technology platform is more durable.

 

What needs checking tonight is whether that structure holds. Three things specifically: the sequential growth in total fee revenue, the sequential growth in loan platform fees, and the gap between them. If the total grows while loan platform fees grow materially faster than the rest, growth quality has in fact weakened against the second quarter.

 

Note also that the company describes the loan platform business two slightly different ways, with second-quarter loan platform fees of $140.9 million against a contribution of $143.3 million to adjusted net revenue, so citations should distinguish between them.

 

On SoFi's positioning in payments settlement, our earlier analysis covered the SoFiUSD and Mastercard settlement arrangement, a line that sits outside loan platform fees.

 

 

Member growth itself is steady, and the more informative figure is products held per member.

 

 

Products per member is this article's calculation, dividing total products by members. Products are growing faster than members, indicating cross-selling is progressing, which is the precondition for diversifying fee revenue.

 

Members grew 35% year over year in the second quarter and products 42%. Company guidance calls for member growth of at least 30% year over year, so the second quarter's 35% sits above that threshold.

 

The point to watch tonight is whether product growth continues to outpace member growth. Convergence or reversal would indicate falling cross-sell efficiency among new members, and that would appear before it shows up in fee revenue.

 

 

Credit costs appear in the brief as a risk item, yet the second-quarter data pointed the other way.

 

 

Credit metrics improved across the board in the second quarter, with the 41 basis point drop in the personal loan charge-off rate the most pronounced. The company described 90-day delinquency rates for personal and student loans as consistent with the prior year in its second-quarter report without publishing the figures, so the absolute level cannot be checked from public disclosure. That is worth watching tonight: either the company beginning to publish specific delinquency figures, or a change from the "consistent with the prior year" formulation, would be a signal.

 

On funding, deposits grew $5.3 billion in the quarter to $45.5 billion at an average interest-bearing rate of 3.07%, with cost of funds down 36 basis points year over year. Goldman's concern lives here: rising deposit costs would both compress net interest income directly and reduce what third-party buyers pay for loans, affecting gain-on-sale ratios and loan platform fee rates.

 

Pairing that concern with the implied fee rate above makes it sharper. The loan platform's implied rate has already slipped from roughly 4.61% in the first quarter to roughly 4.55% in the second. Further decline in the third quarter would indicate the transmission Goldman describes has begun, and it would act on fee revenue and net interest income simultaneously.

 

Other second-quarter baselines for reference: total net revenue of $1.219 billion, up 43%; adjusted net revenue of $1.206 billion, up 40%; net interest income of $788.2 million, up 52%; net income of $156.6 million, up 61%; diluted EPS of $0.12; adjusted EBITDA of $357.8 million, up 44% at a 30% margin; total loan originations of $14.80 billion, up 69%; and tangible book value per share of $7.34, up 56%.

 

 

The company raised full-year adjusted net revenue guidance at the second quarter, from approximately $4.655 billion at the first quarter to approximately $4.75 billion to $4.85 billion, implying roughly 32% to 35% annual growth. Adjusted EBITDA stayed at approximately $1.6 billion at a 33% to 34% margin, adjusted EPS at approximately $0.60, and member growth at at least 30% year over year.

 

The implied second-half requirement follows from the first-half actuals. First-quarter adjusted net revenue of $1.087 billion plus the second quarter's $1.206 billion gives $2.293 billion for the half. On that base:

 

 

These calculations are this article's arithmetic on published data. Consensus third-quarter revenue of $1.25 billion falls inside that range, so expectations and guidance are internally consistent.

 

What deserves attention is the slowdown embedded in those figures. Adjusted net revenue grew 10.9% sequentially in the second quarter, while consensus of $1.25 billion represents only about 3.7% sequential growth from it. Were the third quarter to land at $1.25 billion, the implied fourth quarter would be roughly $1.207 billion to $1.307 billion, essentially flat to modestly higher. Current guidance therefore does not require the first half's sequential momentum to continue, which leaves room for a raise while also meaning that merely meeting expectations will not support one.

 

The condition for a guidance raise can accordingly be made specific: adjusted net revenue needs to clear the $1.279 billion high-end implied quarterly figure by a visible margin, with no reversal in credit metrics, before the company has reason to lift the full-year range again. Conversely, a third quarter near or below $1.229 billion would put the low end itself under pressure.

 

The most efficient order to check tonight runs as follows. First, whether adjusted net revenue exceeds $1.279 billion, which determines whether a raise is possible. Second, the gap between sequential growth in total fee revenue and in loan platform fees, which indicates whether growth quality is improving or narrowing onto one business. Third, whether the personal loan charge-off rate continues the decline from 3.03% to 2.62%, and whether the company's language on 90-day delinquency changes. Fourth, the direction of the average interest-bearing deposit rate against 3.07%, which determines whether Goldman's transmission concern holds. Last, whether the three guidance lines are raised, maintained or cut, and how management characterises the rate environment on the call.

 

On the history of the valuation disagreement, our earlier piece covered the gap between SoFi's share price decline and its price targets, useful background for why a $20.47 average target and $15 bear targets coexist.

 

A note on the size of the move. Options imply a post-earnings move of about 9.65% in either direction, while the last four post-earnings moves averaged 9.08% in absolute terms, three of them declines of 6.36% to 15.44% and only the October 2025 report producing a gain, of 5.53%. Beating estimates does not mean the stock rises, and this name has a clear record on that point.

 

On MEXC, review the contract rules, leverage tiers and position limits for the SOFI stock perpetual, noting that books typically thin considerably around earnings, so check trading sessions and risk limits before submitting an order.

 

 

For James Mitchell, what matters in this print is not whether EPS beats but two structural questions the market narrative flattens out.

 

The first is where fee revenue comes from. Fee-based revenue grew 22.1% sequentially in the second quarter, a figure that will be written up as light-capital businesses driving growth. Break it open and loan platform fees grew just 1.9% while third-party origination volume grew 3.3%, so the implied fee rate slipped from roughly 4.61% to roughly 4.55%. Almost all of that 22.1% came from outside the loan platform, with that remainder up roughly 33.4%. That is good news, because it means the revenue base is broadening rather than concentrating in a business sensitive to both rates and buyer demand. It also carries a risk: if third-quarter fee growth is led again by loan platform fees, the total can look better while the structure has gone backwards. That judgement is only available by decomposing the figure, never by reading the total.

 

The second is that the direction of credit costs is widely reported backwards. Markets habitually treat risk costs at consumer lending platforms as a variable that only worsens, yet the personal loan charge-off rate fell from 3.03% to 2.62% in the second quarter, down 41 basis points, with total loans down from 2.04% to 1.81%. That is improvement. What actually warrants attention, in my view, is not the charge-off rate but how the company discloses 90-day delinquency. The second-quarter report said delinquency on personal and student loans was consistent with the prior year without giving a number. Charge-offs are a lagging indicator and delinquency a leading one, so a company choosing to publish the precise lagging figure while describing the leading one qualitatively is a choice worth recording. If the third quarter repeats it, the charge-off improvement supports less than it appears to.

 

On guidance, the implied requirement I calculated is worth remembering. First-half adjusted net revenue was $2.293 billion against full-year guidance of $4.75 billion to $4.85 billion, so the second half needs $1.229 billion to $1.279 billion per quarter. The second quarter grew 10.9% sequentially while consensus of $1.25 billion corresponds to only about 3.7%. Current guidance already assumes a marked slowdown, so the bar is low. A third quarter that merely meets expectations will most likely leave guidance unchanged, and a raise needs adjusted net revenue clearly above $1.279 billion. Land near $1.229 billion and the low end comes under pressure instead. Reading this print with consensus as the pass mark produces an overly optimistic conclusion.

 

The reasoning behind the two target cuts matters more to me than the ratings. KBW and Goldman both point to rates, through a mechanism where rising deposit costs lower what third-party buyers bid, compressing gain-on-sale ratios, with fair value accounting carrying that compression into the statements faster. That mechanism and the declining loan platform implied fee rate are two faces of the same thing. If the third quarter's average interest-bearing deposit rate runs above 3.07% while the loan platform implied rate keeps falling, the bear case has data behind it, entirely independently of whether EPS beats.

 

One closing point unrelated to fundamentals but more practical for traders. Options imply a post-earnings move of about 9.65%, while this stock's last four post-earnings moves averaged 9.08% in absolute terms, three of them declines with the largest at 15.44% and only one a gain. Over the same stretch it has beaten EPS estimates for eleven consecutive quarters. Both facts holding together says one thing: on this name there is no reliable link between beating and rising, and what sets the price is guidance and management's characterisation of the rate environment rather than the quarter's EPS. With a rate decision due the next day, tonight's reaction may yet be rewritten.

 

 

 

Per the company's notice of September 29, 2026, results will be published on its investor relations website at approximately 7:00 a.m. Eastern Time on October 27, 2026, with the conference call at 8:00 a.m. the same day. Converted to Singapore time those are roughly 19:00 and 20:00. The audio webcast is at events.q4inc.com/attendee/781047887, phone access requires pre-registration, and a replay will be posted to the investor relations page.

 

 

Consensus calls for earnings of $0.17 per share on revenue of $1.25 billion, growth of roughly 55% and roughly 30% respectively. The company has beaten EPS estimates for eleven consecutive quarters and exceeded revenue estimates for at least seven. The consensus rating is Moderate Buy with an average target of $20.47, though KBW maintains a Sell with a target cut to $15 and Goldman a Hold with a target cut to $15.

 

 

Look at the gap between sequential growth in total fee revenue and in loan platform fees. The second quarter saw total fee-based revenue up 22.1% to $472.3 million while loan platform fees rose only 1.9% to $140.9 million, leaving the remainder up roughly 33.4% and indicating growth across business lines outside the loan platform. If third-quarter growth is led again by loan platform fees, a higher total would still mean a weaker structure. These sequential figures are calculated from the two earnings releases.

 

 

They improved rather than deteriorated in the second quarter. The annualised net charge-off rate on personal loans fell from 3.03% in the first quarter to 2.62%, student loans from 0.65% to 0.61%, and total loans from 2.04% to 1.81%. Note that the company did not publish specific 90-day delinquency figures, describing them in the second-quarter report only as consistent with the prior year. Charge-offs lag while delinquency leads, so how delinquency is disclosed is itself worth watching.

 

 

Full-year adjusted net revenue guidance was raised at the second quarter to approximately $4.75 billion to $4.85 billion. First-half actuals were $2.293 billion ($1.087 billion plus $1.206 billion), implying the second half must reach roughly $2.457 billion to $2.557 billion, or roughly $1.229 billion to $1.279 billion per quarter. Consensus of $1.25 billion falls inside that range. These calculations are arithmetic on published data rather than company disclosures.

 

 

Adjusted net revenue would need to exceed the roughly $1.279 billion high-end implied quarterly figure by a visible margin, with no reversal in credit metrics. Note that consensus of $1.25 billion represents only about 3.7% sequential growth against the second quarter's 10.9%, so current guidance already assumes a slowdown and merely meeting expectations will not support an increase. A third quarter near or below roughly $1.229 billion would instead pressure the low end.

 

 

Options imply a post-earnings move of about 9.65% in either direction. The last four post-earnings moves averaged 9.08% in absolute terms, three of them declines of 6.36% to 15.44%, with only the October 2025 report producing a gain, of 5.53%. The company has beaten EPS estimates for eleven consecutive quarters while the stock is still down roughly 44% year to date, indicating no reliable link between beating and rising. Note also that the FOMC meets October 27 and 28 with the rate decision published the following day, which may affect the price a second time.

 

 

Both cited rates. KBW expects higher rates to weigh on results and warns that fair value accounting could make guidance harder to meet. Goldman flags the effect of recent rate moves on gain-on-sale ratios and higher deposit costs lowering what third-party buyers will pay for loans. Against the second-quarter data, the average interest-bearing deposit rate was 3.07% with cost of funds down 36 basis points year over year, while the loan platform's implied fee rate slipped from roughly 4.61% to roughly 4.55%, the latter consistent with that concern.

 

 

The information above is provided for general market and product information only and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, legal advice, tax advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities, nor does it constitute an endorsement of any issuer or trading product. This article is a preview written before the earnings release, verified before 17:00 Singapore time on October 27, 2026, at which point SoFi's third-quarter results had not been published; all figures herein are previously published historical financial data, company guidance or third-party consensus estimates, and none constitutes a forecast of actual results. Consensus estimates, price targets and ratings come from third parties and may change at any time, and different data providers use different bases and samples that are not comparable with one another. Figures identified as this article's calculations or derivations, including sequential growth rates, shares of revenue, products per member, the loan platform implied fee rate and the second-half requirement implied by guidance, are not figures disclosed by the company; they are calculated from published earnings releases, and actual outcomes will differ with accounting treatment, changes in business mix and revisions to company definitions. The company has not published specific 90-day delinquency figures, describing them qualitatively, and no specific level should be inferred from that description. Adjusted net revenue, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted earnings per share are non-GAAP measures defined by the company and are not directly comparable with other companies. Guidance may be raised, maintained or cut, and a historical record of beating estimates does not indicate future results. The stock perpetual contract referenced is a derivative rather than a share, conferring no ownership, voting rights or dividends, and leveraged products can produce losses exceeding the initial outlay, with order books typically thinning and volatility rising around earnings. Readers should consult the company's original filings before making any decision, judge against their own financial circumstances, investment objectives and risk tolerance, and consult a qualified professional where appropriate. The MEXC Crypto Pulse team accepts no liability for any direct or indirect loss arising from the use of this information.

 

 

James Mitchell specializes in technical analysis, market trends, and trading strategies for both Bitcoin and altcoins. Based in London, he has over 10 years of experience in financial markets. Before joining MEXC Learn, James worked as a senior analyst at a leading European investment firm, where he developed expertise in risk management and quantitative trading. His transition to cryptocurrency markets began in 2017, and he has since become recognized for his data-driven approach. He holds a Master's degree in Financial Economics from the London School of Economics. His analytical approach combines traditional technical analysis with on-chain metrics to provide readers with actionable insights.

 

Areas of Expertise: Technical Analysis, Market Trends and Cycles, Trading Strategies, Bitcoin and Altcoin Analysis, Risk Management.

 

 

 

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