- Samson Mow argues that bitcoin’s price bottom has already been set, saying the traditional four-year halving cycle has accelerated after an all-time high arrived 37 days before the April 2024 halving.
- Other analysts contend that bitcoin may not have bottomed yet, pointing to technical indicators such as bear crosses in long-term moving averages and the 200-week moving average as signs further downside is possible.
- Forecasts for a potential bottom vary widely, with some analysts seeing limited downside while others predict bitcoin could fall into the $40,000 to $55,000 range later this year before a durable low is established.
The bitcoin bottom is in, said Samson Mow in an X post on Sunday, arguing that the traditional four-year halving cycle has accelerated.
“I find it incredibly interesting how some people are so certain that the bottom is coming in four months because of ‘cycles,’” said Mow, who is best known his $1 million prediction and his work with El Salvador’s bitcoin initiatives, as well as his work promoting nation-state bitcoin adoption worldwide.
“But we had an (all-time high) ATH 37 days before the halving, so it would seem even if you believe in cycles, you should reason out that the cycles accelerated. The bottom is in,” said Mow, former chief strategy officer at Adam Back’s Blockstream.
Mow said he believes that bitcoin reaching a then-all-time high 37 days before the April 2024 halving suggests the traditional four-year cycle has accelerated, making historical cycle comparisons less reliable.
Mow is not the first to argue that bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle has changed. After bitcoin climbed to a then-all-time high before the April 2024 halving, several analysts suggested growing institutional demand following the launch of U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs could alter the pattern that has historically followed each halving. Others, however, argued it was too early to conclude the cycle had changed.
$55,000 more likely
Not everyone agrees. Several analysts have recently argued that bitcoin is either close to a market bottom or still has further to fall, although they rely on different indicators and models.
CoinDesk market analyst Omkar Godbole recently wrote that if you were “wondering just how much lower bitcoin is likely to drop, the answer, at least according to one historically accurate contrarian indicator, is not much.”
That indicator is based on bitcoin's 50-week and 100-week simple moving averages. The 50-week average, representing roughly one year, is very close to dropping below the 100-week line, forming what analysts call a "bear cross." Historically, similar signals coincided with market bottoms, leading some analysts to see the pattern as bullish.
More recently, Markus Thielen, the founder of 10x Research, said he believes the bottom is more likely at $55,000 and not until somewhere between August and October. Arthur Hayes, the BitMex co-founder, took a more bearish position, saying bitcoin would bottom at around $40,000 within the next six months.
James Van Straten, CoinDesk’s senior analyst, recently said bitcoin may still need to plunge 15% or more to mark the bottom. He based that forecast on the long-standing indicator known as the 200-week moving average.
“With bitcoin testing its 200-week moving average, onchain data suggests the $50,000 to $54,000 range could become the next key battleground,” he wrote.
Van Straten noted that in every major bear market since 2011, bitcoin eventually traded below its realized price before establishing a cycle bottom. “So far, bitcoin has not fallen beneath this level in the current cycle,” he said.
