BP Stock Lands Two Upgrades in One Day After Crushing Q1 Estimates

TLDR

• Argus upgraded BP to Buy with a $50 price target after Q1 2026 earnings beat estimates
• BP posted Q1 adjusted net income of $3.198 billion, or $1.24 per share, topping the $0.91 consensus
• Royal Bank of Canada also upgraded BP to Outperform with a GBX 700 target, implying ~31% upside
• BP’s Q1 beat was driven by higher upstream production, better refining margins, and strong oil trading
• BP trades at $43.34 on the NYSE and GBX 535.60 on the London Stock Exchange

BP (BP) got a double vote of confidence on Monday as both Argus and Royal Bank of Canada upgraded the oil major, following a stronger-than-expected first quarter.

BP p.l.c., BP

BP’s Q1 2026 adjusted net income came in at $3.198 billion, or $1.24 per share. That’s up sharply from $1.381 billion, or $0.53 per share, in the same period last year.

The result cleared both the Argus estimate of $1.14 per share and the Wall Street consensus of $0.91 per share by a wide margin.

Argus lifted its rating from Hold to Buy and set a price target of $50.00. At the current NYSE price of $43.34, that implies meaningful upside.

Royal Bank of Canada separately upgraded BP to Outperform, setting a GBX 700 target on the London-listed stock. BP opened at GBX 535.60 in London on Monday, making RBC’s target about 30.7% above the current level.

What Drove the Beat

Three things pushed earnings higher in Q1: increased upstream production, stronger realized refining margins, and a solid contribution from oil trading. Lower price realizations were a drag, but not enough to offset the gains.

BP said it expects 2026 full-year production to stay flat compared with 2025. Capital expenditure guidance is set at $13.0 billion to $13.5 billion. The company doesn’t issue full-year earnings guidance.

BP has also maintained its dividend streak. On August 5, 2025, it raised its quarterly dividend by 4% to $0.4942 per share, or $2.00 annually. Argus projects dividends of $2.08 for 2026 and $2.12 for 2027.

The stock currently yields 4.56%. BP has kept its dividend running for 35 consecutive years.

Analyst Sentiment

The broader analyst community is on board too. Of the analysts covering BP, nine have Buy ratings and two have Hold ratings, giving BP a Moderate Buy consensus.

The average price target across those analysts sits at GBX 635. RBC’s new GBX 700 target is at the top of that range.

Recent coverage from Goldman Sachs, Barclays, and DZ Bank all restated Buy ratings in late April and early May. JPMorgan and Jefferies both held Neutral ratings in the same period.

On the London exchange, BP’s 52-week range runs from GBX 379.70 to GBX 562.30. It’s currently trading near the upper end of that range.

InvestingPro’s fair value analysis puts the NYSE-listed stock as undervalued at $43.34.

Insider Carol Howle bought 62 BP shares on March 10 at GBX 510 each. Company insiders have purchased a total of 142 shares over the past 90 days and currently own 0.26% of the company.

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