Bernstein: Figure’s Q1 highlights distinct blockchain marketplaces

Figure Technology Solutions is emerging from a period of rapid expansion with a quarterly report that analysts say underscores its shift from a traditional fintech lender to a blockchain-native capital markets platform. In its Q1 results released May 11, Figure beat revenue and EBITDA expectations, reinforcing management’s aim to tokenize real-world credit assets into blockchain-friendly instruments that can be traded, funded and financed with greater efficiency than conventional systems.

Behind the headlines, Bernstein analysts suggest Figure’s trajectory could set it apart from balance-sheet lending platforms by offering a live, blockchain-driven view of loan activity. In a May 15 client note, the firm argued that Figure’s stock could increasingly reflect blockchain loan volumes in real time as more data flows onto its network, a signal that the company’s ecosystem is moving beyond a crypto-tinged HELOC story toward a broader blockchain capital markets framework.

Key takeaways

• Figure’s Q1 results beat Wall Street on revenue and EBITDA, bolstering the fintech’s narrative as a full-stack blockchain capital markets platform.
• Bernstein sees Figure’s growing live blockchain data as a potential driver for the stock to mirror on-chain loan volumes in near real time.
• Figure’s Forge platform converts whole loans into small, liquid participation units to address liquidity and transferability constraints in real-world asset financing on-chain.
• The broader tokenized credit landscape remains small but has outsized potential, with a roughly $5.14 billion current market for tokenized credit and an estimated $4 trillion addressable annual credit origination market as per Bernstein estimates.

From whole loans to liquid participation: the Forge approach

At the heart of Figure’s strategic pivot is the Forge technology stack, which aims to turn whole loans into granular, dollar-denominated participation units that can be traded and funded more efficiently on DeFi rails. CEO Mike Cagney described the challenge common to real-world assets (RWA) on blockchain: in asset-based DeFi, collateral backing loans is only as liquid as the mechanism to realize value. When an LTV breach threatens a loan, or when fractionating a position becomes necessary, where and how would lenders monetize those fractions?

Figure’s answer, according to Bernstein, is a shift toward a full blockchain capital market that can accommodate both loan issuance and broader asset classes, including potential equity, as collateral for liquidity. Bernstein noted that Figure’s ecosystem could eventually “clip a small fee of the entire blockchain economy” as it broadens the scope of assets tradable on-chain. The Forge construct is designed to unlock liquidity by enabling fractional ownership of what are traditionally illiquid, whole-credit positions, thereby broadening the pool of participants and potential funding sources.

Institutional appetite and practical edge

Despite the bullish framing, institutional buyers remain cautious about broader blockchain-for-finance narratives. Figure’s leadership frames the advantage as practical and operational rather than ideological. CEO Michael Tannenbaum, speaking on the May 12 earnings call, reiterated that the company’s real strength lies in execution: artificial intelligence acts as the “brain,” while blockchain serves as the “nervous system.” In his view, blockchain-native data structures should streamline underwriting, compliance and loan verification, enabling more automated and scalable processes across the lifecycle of credit products.

Analysts’ takeaway is that Figure is attempting to reframe the credit market in a way that aligns traditional risk economics with on-chain transparency and liquidity. By pulling real-world asset data into a blockchain-enabled framework, Figure seeks to create a more efficient flow of information and capital that could, over time, reduce friction for lenders and borrowers alike. The question for investors is whether the operational advantages translate into durable revenue streams and a clear path to profitability as the model scales.

Tokenized credit market: a landscape of opportunity and constraint

Figure’s push sits within a broader set of efforts to bring credit on-chain. Bernstein’s research has long highlighted the potential size of the addressable market for tokenized credit, estimating a total annual origination volume across mortgages, auto loans, home equity lines of credit and small-business loans that could eventually move on-chain as tokenized assets — a figure the firm puts near $4 trillion in addressable opportunity.

Today, tokenized credit represents a relatively small segment of the wider real-world asset (RWA) market, with industry data placing the current size at about $5.14 billion. That chasm underscores the growth runway for platforms like Figure, Centrifuge and others that are attempting to bridge institutional-grade assets with DeFi liquidity. Centrifuge, for instance, has expanded its DeFi platform to include tokenized credit and U.S. Treasury products across new blockchain networks, aiming to connect large-scale assets with on-chain markets.

Figure has also extended into auto-loan tokenization through its Hastra DeFi protocol, a collaboration that swaps wrapped yields for a Prime token and connects with broader DeFi ecosystems. Hastra’s recent integration onto the Morpho protocol on Ethereum signals an effort to tap into an even larger addressable market, reinforcing the ambition to tokenize credit products and plug them into a wider on-chain liquidity pool.

Taken together, the developments highlight a tension between the size of the potential on-chain credit market and current adoption. While the total tokenized credit market remains a sliver of the traditional lending landscape, the progress of Figure and its peers indicates a persistent push to prove that real-world assets can be efficiently funded and traded through blockchain-native channels. The question remains how quickly institutions will embrace a model that blends AI-driven underwriting with a highly transparent, on-chain data backbone.

For readers tracking the ecosystem, the evolving dynamics around tokenized credit also matter for builders and traders alike. If live on-chain loan volumes can be reliably measured and linked to real-world performance, Figure could offer a novel signal for demand and risk across the broader crypto-finance market. At the same time, the regulatory and operational terrain around RWAs and tokenized assets remains complex, and any material shifts will likely hinge on clarity from oversight bodies, counterparty risk management, and the reliability of on-chain data feeds.

As notable players push forward, investors should watch for how Figure’s sales and revenue mix evolves as more loans move onto Forge, and how the company navigates the balance between growth and profitability in a market still calibrating to on-chain credit risk models. The broader market’s reception to tokenized credit and the pace at which traditional institutions participate will shape how quickly the “blockchain nervous system” translates into tangible capital formation.

Figure’s May announcements and Bernstein’s ongoing coverage place the company at an intriguing juncture: a fintech that could redefine how real-world assets originate, are underwritten, and circulate within a blockchain-enabled financial ecosystem. The coming quarters will be telling as the company reports further revenue mix details, real-world loan volumes and the efficacy of its Forge-based liquidity framework.

What to watch next: continued visibility into Q2 loan volumes on Figure’s blockchain rails, the trajectory of FIGR’s stock in response to on-chain data signals, and whether the Hastra-Morpho and Centrifuge collaborations unlock meaningful liquidity channels for tokenized credit. For now, the story underscores a broader market test — whether real-world assets can be fully integrated into decentralized finance in a way that is scalable, compliant and economically compelling for both borrowers and lenders.

This article was originally published as Bernstein: Figure’s Q1 highlights distinct blockchain marketplaces on Crypto Breaking News – your trusted source for crypto news, Bitcoin news, and blockchain updates.