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Econbrowser

The Econbrowser column focuses on macroeconomics, financial markets, economic data, and policy analysis, making it useful for users who follow economic cycles and market trends.

Econbrowser's Articles

Alternative Business Cycle Indicators: Coincident, Consensus ADP

Coincident continues to rise through May, while Bloomberg consensus for NFP growth is for +114K, roughly same growth rate as in May: Figure 1: Civilian employment

2026/06/30

Brent More Contango-ey

As of NYMEX open: This has occurred as the chances of a near term reopening have declined. Notes: August 1 (orange), September (blue), October (green). Source:

2026/06/29

Rate Cycles (Where Are We Now?)

I’ve been remiss in reporting on this important work by Kristin Forbes, Jongrim Ha and Ayhan Kose, documenting periods of monetary policy tightening ad loosening

2026/06/29

Brent in Contango

As of yesterday: Source: Barchart, accessed 6/27/2026. Literally, prices are higher near future than front month, which is different from backwardation (which was

2026/06/28

Instantaneous PCE Inflation

Nowcasted June inflation will be down — but for core not down much… Figure 1: Headline PCE deflator instantaneous inflation (blue), core PCE (tan), per Eeckhout

2026/06/27

Four Measures of Output: GDP, GDI, GDO, GDP+

As of the 2026Q1 3rd release: Figure 1: GDP (bold black), GDI (red), GDO (blue), GDP+ growth iterated on 2022Q2 GDP (green), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA

2026/06/27

June (Final) Consumer Sentiment

Beats consensus/preliminary (49.5 vs. 48.9), rising above May final (44.8) — but still low: Figure 1: U.Michigan Economic Sentiment (blue), Conference Board Confidence

2026/06/27

Consensus on Canadian GDP

The Financial Post reports: Economists in a Bloomberg survey now see Canada’s economy expanding just 0.7% this year after shrinking in the first quarter. Here’s

2026/06/27

Nowcasts/Forecasts of GDP

GDPNow updated downward: Figure 1: GDP (bold black), GDPNow of 6/26 (blue square), St . Louis Fed news nowcast of 6/26 (orange circle), NY Fed nowcast of 6/19 (

2026/06/27

LLMs and IMF Advice, Dollar Trinity, Risk-On/Risk -Off and Loanly Govts: (Almost) Live-Blogging ISOM 2026

Jeffrey Frankel and Hélène Rey organized a great conference for the NBER’s International Seminar on Macroeconomics, hosted by the Sveriges Riksbank; topics covered

2026/06/26