Bitcoin: volatility at its lowest in the last nine months

The implied volatility of the price of Bitcoin has reached its lowest level in the last nine months. 

After shooting up in February, during the crash that brought the price of BTC down to $60,000, it began a long process of easing that seems to still be underway. 

This goes hand in hand with the loss of interest from retail investors. 

Bitcoin volatility

There is an index, called BVIV, that specifically measures the implied volatility of the price of Bitcoin.

It is essentially the equivalent of the VIX, which measures the volatility of the S&P 500 stock market, applied to Bitcoin. 

In particular, it reflects the market’s expectations of Bitcoin’s future volatility over the next 30 days, calculated from BTC options prices.

When the value of the BVIV index is high, it means that the market is pricing in strong future price movements in both directions, that is, uncertainty or fear.

When it is low, on the other hand, it merely indicates expectations of relative calm and stability.

It is used to measure the “sentiment” and perceived risk in the Bitcoin market. 

The low

Starting from the end of September 2025, the value of the BVIV index began to rise. In the space of two months it went from 36 to 62 points, perhaps in anticipation of a speculative bubble. 

Instead, unlike in past cycles, the big speculative bubble did not occur, and in fact starting from December the level of this index began to fall. 

It should be said that the annual average is just under 50 points, so the movement at the end of 2025 really seemed to have the potential to do more than what actually happened. 

Between December and January, Bitcoin’s implied volatility had returned to around 40 points, but at the very end of January, in just eight days, it shot up to 97 points, the highest level since November 2022. 

Those 97 points at the beginning of February not only correspond to the local minimum peak marked by the price of Bitcoin at $60,000, but also signaled a great deal of fear. With hindsight we can say that this fear was not justified at all. 

In fact, not only had implied volatility already fallen back to 60 the following day, but from just before mid-March it began to collapse. 

Yesterday the minimum peak was reached at 36 points, and today in theory it could fall further. It should be remembered that since the end of September 2025, Bitcoin’s implied volatility had never been this low. 

Retail disaffection

Such a low level, however, does not only indicate relative calm in the Bitcoin market. It also reveals a certain disaffection among retail investors. 

It should be emphasized that in general it is not retail investors who make the Bitcoin market, which is now dominated by whales, including institutional ones. 

However, it is precisely retail investors who are behind speculative bubbles, because without retail capital it is almost impossible for speculative bubbles to inflate. 

The problem is that the level of interest of ordinary people (that is, retail investors) in Bitcoin has fallen to its lowest level in the last three years, most likely both due to the lack of a speculative bubble at the end of 2025 and to such greatly reduced volatility. 

In other words, first the reduced volatility caused a loss of interest in Bitcoin, and then this same loss of interest further reduced volatility. 

Forecasts

As of today, there is no sign of a possible reversal of this trend. 

However, it is not a big problem if volatility remains low, as long as it does not drop to zero and does not stay low for too long. 

For example, since the BVIV index began to be tracked, it has fallen below current levels twice: in 2023, when it hit a low of 34 points after a decline lasting five and a half months, and then in September 2025 when it again hit 34 points after a decline of almost six months. 

Yesterday’s low was 36 points, but the decline has lasted only three months, so in theory volatility could remain low for a while longer. 

This would be compatible with the hypothesis that the current Bitcoin price trend will continue until mid-June, and then perhaps a new trend could begin after the start of summer. 

In the short term, however, there remains an anomaly that in theory could even trigger a small price rebound today when the US stock markets reopen. 

In other words, in the short term it is possible that there will be a slight rise in the price of Bitcoin, but still remaining within a sluggish trend that could continue for about another month. In the medium term, however, if this trend were indeed to reverse, there is the possibility of new declines by the end of the year, while in the medium to long term it is possible to imagine another more substantial rebound sooner or later.