Dollar showdown week: Fed signals, oil risks and US-Iran talks drive ringgit outlook

KUALA LUMPUR, June 13 — The ringgit is expected to be traded cautiously next week, ahead of the June 16–17 Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

Markets are expected to scrutinise the United States Federal Reserve’s statements and projections for the federal funds rate for the year.

Bank Muamalat Malaysia Bhd chief economist Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid told Bernama that it will be interesting to look at the latest Fed assessment, given the US headline inflation rate was at a three-year high at 4.2 per cent in May.

He said another key focus, which will be closely monitored, is the global central banks’ reaction towards the current oil price shocks.

“Bank of Japan will be deciding their policy rate on June 16, with consensus expecting a 25-basis-point hike to one per cent.

“Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will also reconvene to decide their cash rate, but markets are anticipating no change in the benchmark interest rate, which currently stands at 4.35 per cent,” he said.

Meanwhile, SPI Asset Management managing partner Stephen Innes said the big swing factor for next week’s market movement will be updates around the US-Iran peace deal.

“If there is a credible deal, the US dollar could weaken by around three to five per cent over the course of the month. That would be a meaningful tailwind for regional currencies, including the ringgit,” he added.

On a Friday-to-Friday basis, the ringgit eased to 4.0555/0600 against the US dollar from 4.0280/0320 a week earlier.

The local currency traded lower against a basket of major currencies during the week.

It depreciated against the British pound to 5.4429/4489 from 5.4233/4287, eased versus the Japanese yen to 2.5334/5364 from 2.5183/5209, and weakened against the euro to 4.6979/7031 from 4.6882/6928 previously.

It also traded lower against Asean currencies.

It slid against the Indonesian rupiah to 227.0/227.4 from 223.3/223.6, eased vis-à-vis the Singapore dollar to 3.1602/1640 from 3.1390/1424, slipped against the Thai baht to 12.4105/4288 from 12.3433/3605, and declined against the Philippine peso to 6.67/6.68 from 6.55/6.56. — Bernama