Rocket Lab Bull-Case Target Set at $293 by Morgan Stanley

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Shares of Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) have been on a wild ride lately, with the stock down 17.94% over the past week and 24.23% over the past month as the broader space complex has sold off hard since SpaceX’s June 2026 IPO. Even after the pullback, RKLB is still up 19.57% year to date, 114.53% over the past 12 months, and a staggering 620.92% over five years.

At $81.45, the stock sits roughly 46% below its 52-week high of $151. This is the fourth drawdown of 40% or more on RKLB’s climb from under $4 per share. Most of the Street sits at a consensus target of $114.10. Then there is Morgan Stanley, which just lifted its bull-case target to $293, implying roughly 260% upside and towering 157% above consensus.

Reaching $293 by year-end 2026 would require Neutron’s on-time debut, Iridium accretion, and major Golden Dome awards converting to signed dollars.

Morgan Stanley’s $293 RKLB Prediction

Morgan Stanley reiterated its Overweight rating and $105 base case while pushing its bull case to $293, citing the growth runway of Rocket Lab’s space-systems division and the $8 billion Iridium acquisition announced June 29. The bank points to Q1 FY26 revenue of $200.35 million, up 63.5% year over year, a record $2.20 billion backlog, and a record 16-hour, 42-minute responsive launch on the U.S. Space Force VICTUS HAZE mission.

Key Drivers of RKLB Stock Performance

1. Neutron and the defense flywheel. Neutron’s debut is targeted later in 2026, unlocking medium-lift revenue and layered awards like the Space Based Interceptor program under Golden Dome. Recurring defense contracts provide multi-decade cash flow visibility.
2. Vertical integration through M&A. The Iridium deal, Geost’s $325 million sensor buy, Mynaric, and Motiv turn Rocket Lab into an end-to-end space platform with 2.5 million recurring subscribers, feeding durable long-term earnings power.
3. Backlog visibility. A $2.20 billion backlog, 70-plus contracted missions, and the $816 million SDA contract give retirement investors rare multi-year revenue visibility in a high-growth name.

What Will It Take for RKLB to Reach $293?

With 629 million basic weighted average shares outstanding, a $293 price implies a market cap near $184.3 billion, up from the current $47.15 billion. Conditions required:

• A clean, on-time Neutron debut with reusable recovery.
• Iridium closing on schedule in mid-2027 with visible accretion.
• Major Golden Dome and SHIELD awards converting the $151 billion opportunity into signed dollars.

The primary risk is Neutron slippage colliding with continued net losses and equity dilution from ATM offerings. Even so, Morgan Stanley’s $293 call captures the optionality tied to Neutron, defense contracts, and the Iridium deal closing on schedule.

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