Analysts see political fallout as House plenary votes on Sara’s impeachment

By Pexcel John Bacon

POLITICAL analysts said the House of Representatives plenary vote on May 11 on the impeachment complaint against Vice-President (VP) Sara Duterte-Carpio could reshape political alliances, influence voter sentiment and alter the direction of Philippine politics ahead of the 2028 elections.

Ederson DT. Tapia, a political science professor at the University of Makati, said the proceedings go beyond a constitutional process and have become a broader test of democratic accountability and institutional stability.

“Every vote will likely be scrutinized as a reflection of principle, political calculation or both,” he said via Facebook Messenger.

The House vote will determine whether the impeachment complaint will be sent to the Senate for trial over allegations involving misuse of confidential funds, unexplained wealth, discrepancies in asset disclosures, and threats against President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr.

Mr. Tapia said lawmakers from both the House and Senate are expected to face pressure from the public, political allies and rival camps as the impeachment process unfolds.

He said the proceedings could influence how voters view leadership, transparency and checks and balances before the next presidential race.

“Politically, it may also accelerate coalition-building and realignment, as parties and national figures position themselves around the competing narratives of governance, loyalty and accountability,” he added.

Mr. Tapia also said the impeachment case could reshape political alliances by forcing politicians to publicly take a position on institutional responsibility and democratic restraint.

“In the Philippine setting, impeachment is never purely legal or purely political; it becomes a broader struggle over legitimacy, public trust and the credibility of institutions,” he said.

Eric Daniel C. de Torres, a political science professor at the University of the East, said the pressure on lawmakers could intensify if the case reaches the Senate for trial.

“Should it be transmitted to the Senate, all eyes will be on the senator-judges,” he said via Messenger.

Mr. de Torres said public attention would likely focus on the presentation of evidence and witness testimony, particularly amid growing political polarization.

He noted that senators eyeing reelection or national positions in 2028 might tread carefully given the Duterte family’s continued political influence, especially in Mindanao and parts of the Visayas.

“During the last-minute endorsement of VP Inday, Senator Imee and Senator Camille were able to make it through the Magic 12 due to the strong bailiwick of the Dutertes,” he said, referring to Senators Maria Imelda Josefa R. Marcos and Camille A. Villar.

Mr. de Torres added that the Duterte family has reshaped Philippine politics through a populist style that resonates directly with ordinary voters.

He also said many political groups appear to be in a “wait-and-see mode” as they assess how the impeachment process could affect ties among the administration, progressive blocs and Duterte allies.

POLITICAL RISKS
Dennis C. Coronacion, chairman of the Political Science Department at the University of Santo Tomas, said the vote could affect the political future of lawmakers seeking reelection.

“Voting for impeachment carries the risk of retaliation from the Vice-President, who famously campaigned against vocal critics in their own districts during the last midterm elections,” he said via Messenger.

At the same time, lawmakers who vote against impeachment also face political risks, he said.

“Voting against the impeachment carries the risk of earning the ire of the public, who believe that the damning pieces of evidence presented during the House committee hearings deserve to be transmitted to the Senate,” he added.

Mr. Coronacion said senators would also face intense scrutiny if the Senate convenes as an impeachment court.

“The public will closely monitor their decorum during the trial, looking for any signs of whether they favor or oppose the Vice-President’s conviction,” he said.

He added that the impeachment proceedings could significantly affect the 2028 presidential race.

“A conviction in the Senate would disqualify VP Sara Duterte from running for any public office, potentially leveling the playing field for the other presidential contenders,” he said.

The House Committee on Justice earlier found probable cause to impeach Ms. Duterte after weeks of hearings reviewing audit findings, financial records and witness testimony.

Under the Constitution, support from at least one-third of all congressmen is required for the impeachment complaint to be sent to the Senate.