‘It’s Going to Open One Way or the Other’: Rubio Issues Stark Warning on Strait of Hormuz

TLDR

• Secretary of State Rubio warned the Strait of Hormuz will reopen “one way or the other,” following U.S. military strikes on Iran
• A proposed deal includes a 30-60 day ceasefire extension and Iran being allowed to sell oil again
• The White House predicts energy prices will “plummet” once the strait reopens
• Analysts warn of a “Hormuz Hangover” — energy markets could take quarters or years to normalize
• Crude oil futures are hovering between $90-$100 per barrel as talks remain uncertain

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Tuesday that the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened “one way or the other,” following overnight U.S. military strikes on southern Iran. The comments came as indirect negotiations between Washington and Tehran continued in Doha.

The strait has been restricted since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on February 28, starting the war. Iran’s restrictions have contributed to rising gas prices globally.

Rubio made clear that any deal must include free, toll-free passage through the strait. He criticized Iran for charging navigation fees, saying no country in the world supports a tolling system except Iran’s government.

Iran denied the fees are a toll, with a foreign ministry spokesperson saying the charges cover navigational services and environmental protection.

What a Deal Would Look Like

Reports suggest the proposed framework includes a 30 or 60-day ceasefire extension, during which the strait would reopen and Iran would be permitted to sell oil. Nuclear negotiations would be pushed to a later stage.

President Trump posted over the weekend that a deal “will be announced shortly,” but later walked that back, saying talks would take more time.

Rubio said Tuesday any agreement would take “a few days,” as new clashes between U.S. and Iranian forces broke out near the strait itself. U.S. Central Command said strikes were conducted in part to counter Iranian boats attempting to place mines.

Why Analysts Are Cautioning Against Optimism

Despite White House optimism, energy analysts are urging caution. Wolfe Research said rebuilding commercial and strategic inventories “will stretch well into 2027.” Henrietta Treyz of AGF Investments coined the term “Hormuz Hangover,” saying the recovery timeline should be “measured in quarters and years.”

Capital Economics said any market rally following a reopening is likely to be limited because energy prices won’t return to normal immediately.

There are roughly 1,500 ships currently in the Persian Gulf waiting for the strait to clear. The physical damage to energy infrastructure in the region adds to the recovery timeline.

Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate futures were trading between $90 and $100 per barrel on Tuesday as talks continued.

Analysts at Yardeni Research also raised a longer-term concern. Even after the war ends, stock markets are likely to price in a “Strait of Hormuz premium” on oil, given that Iran could move to close the strait again at any time.

Iranian lawmakers added new conditions Tuesday, with the head of parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee outlining confidence-building measures the U.S. must meet before any deal is signed.

As of Tuesday, no agreement had been reached, and the timeline for any announcement remained unclear.

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