MicroStrategy Could Offload Some Bitcoin Before the End of 2026 – Polymarket

Key Insights:

• Polymarket prices at 80%+ odds that MicroStrategy will sell some of its Bitcoin holdings.
• MicroStrategy has reportedly been absorbing more Bitcoin than incoming supply in 2026 so far.
• MSTR stock price slides below $160 as FUD forces BTC price below $175,000.

MicroStrategy has so far built an image around being one of the most diamond-handed Bitcoin treasury institutions. Its chairman, Michael Saylor, has even hinted in the past that he does not plan to sell off his BTC holdings.

MicroStrategy has even created different yield-generating products that have fueled its success so far. However, fresh data suggests that the company plans to sell some of its Bitcoin holdings before the end of the year.

Polymarket priced in a 10% chance that MicroStrategy would sell BTC before the end of 2026. That probability has since jumped to 84%.

MicroStrategy probability of selling Bitcoin in 2026 jumps | Source: Polymarket

This probability was not arbitrary but a reaction to Michael Saylor’s statements during MicroStrategy’s Q1 earnings call earlier this month. He noted that the company might sell some of its BTC before the end of the year as a strategic move aimed at dividend repayment. MicroStrategy is one of the most influential companies in the crypto sphere. A large BTC sale from this company may thus influence the market.

MicroStrategy Has Been Aiding the Market in Absorbing New Supply

Speaking of market influence, one of the best ways the company has been impacting BTC is through newly minted Bitcoin. Fresh Bitcoin supply makes its way into the market through miners. Miners contribute to sell pressure when they offload their coins. This is because a fresh supply dilutes the price, especially during periods of weak demand.

As per the latest data, MicroStrategy has so far purchased roughly 2.6 times the amount of Bitcoin fresh supply from miners on a YTD basis. In other words, MicroStrategy has been absorbing more BTC than miners have been selling.

MicroStrategy absorbs more BTC than fresh supply in 2026 | Source: Bitcoin Magazine, Courtesy of Strategy

This was noteworthy because miner flows to exchanges were quite elevated in the last 6 months. This was because miners were also panic-selling during the bearish months. In fact, recent data showed that miner flows into exchanges remained elevated this month. Binance alone received 21,000 BTC on 18 May. This was the largest daily inflow from miners that was recorded since 5 February.

Bitcoin miner flows into exchanges | Source: CryptoQuant

This means miners are increasingly contributing to the sell pressure amid a bleak short-term outlook.

MSTR Stock Price Retreats Below $50,000 Amid Bearish Market Conditions

The MSTR stock price slid below $160 as Bitcoin price faced sell pressure. It exchanged hands at $154 at press time. The sell pressure is threatening to push it back into the consolidation zone that lasted from February to April.

MSTR stock price | Source: TradingView

The downside in MSTR stock price was mostly due to the declining BTC price. This, in turn, was driven by bearish macro conditions, especially the worsening diplomatic situation between the US and Iran.

Analysts have been contemplating whether MicroStrategy’s plan to sell Bitcoin from its holdings could impact MSTR stock price. The reason for the sale may offer insights into how the stock price could react.

Dividend payouts traditionally encourage users to hold a stock for at least a few months. If that is the case, then more MSTR stockholders may opt not to sell. This may even encourage buying in the near term.

The post MicroStrategy Could Offload Some Bitcoin Before the End of 2026 – Polymarket appeared first on The Coin Republic.