Paxton 2.0: Kansas GOP worried Trump just sank their race for governor

President Donald Trump’s recent endorsement in the race for Kansas governor could help Democrats retain that office.

“The endorsement scrambled the crowded Republican field for governor and struck a major blow to Masterson’s major GOP rivals, including former Gov. Jeff Colyer, Secretary of State Scott Schwab and Insurance Commissioner Vicki Schmidt,” reported Kacen Bayless of The Kansas City Star regarding Trump’s endorsement of State Sen. Ty Masterson. The winner of the upcoming Republican primary will aim to succeed a Democrat, Gov. Laura Kelly, who after two terms is not eligible for reelection. In her stead Democrats will nominate either State Sen. Cindy Holscher, State Sen. Ethan Corson or teacher Marty Tuley.

“Support from the undisputed leader of the Republican Party instantly solidified Masterson as a front-runner in the Aug. 4 Republican primary and handed the 56-year-old Senate president a major advantage in his quest to succeed Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly,” Bayless added. “Trump’s backing comes at a pivotal time for Kansas Republicans, who remain confident they can take back the governor’s office this year.”

Yet at the same time, some experts are concerned that Masterson may not be the strongest Republican in terms of winning the general election.

“Masterson’s decision to tie himself closely to Trump could be a gamble in the general election if he were to win the nomination,” Bayless reported. “Republicans nationally are gearing up for a potentially torturous election cycle amid rising gas prices, war with Iran and Trump’s fledgling poll numbers.”

Indeed, the Kansas Democratic Party has already started attacking Masterson for his seeming support of Trump’s unpopular policies involving the economy and the war against Iran.

“I think the question is, how much does a Trump endorsement maybe hurt in the general election, either because Trump is extremely unpopular among the general public or because the person he’s endorsed is maybe not the best candidate,” Matt Harris, a political scientist at Park University in Parkville, told Bayless.

If Trump’s endorsement helps Masterson win the nomination, and then he goes on to lose in the general election, it may not be the only time that happens in the 2026 midterm elections. Trump is already under attack by many of his fellow Republicans for endorsing Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton over Sen. John Cornyn in the Texas Senate race, and Paxton ultimately prevailed. Trump made his endorsement even though polls show Cornyn was more likely to beat Democratic nominee James Talarico than Paxton. On other occasions, Trump’s vendetta campaign has taken out Republicans whose seats will nevertheless likely remain in GOP hands, including Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana and Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky.

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