Bitcoin Price Forecast: Wintermute Warns BTC Could Still Fall Into $50K Range

TLDR

• Wintermute said Bitcoin’s rebound does not confirm a structural market bottom.
• The firm warned BTC could still fall into the $50K range during thin liquidity.
• Wintermute said ETF and stablecoin inflows must return to support recovery.
• Traders are watching $64K as a key Bitcoin support level.
• Binance Bitcoin futures volume has climbed near $800T cumulatively.

Bitcoin’s rebound from the low-$60,000s has not yet confirmed a durable market bottom, according to Wintermute, as weak ETF inflows, stablecoin activity, and spot demand continue to leave traders cautious.

The crypto market maker and OTC desk said Bitcoin could remain choppy during thin summer liquidity and may still fall into the $50,000 range if demand fails to return. Wintermute said the key signal for a stronger recovery would be a sustained rebound in Bitcoin ETF inflows and stablecoin liquidity.

Bitcoin recently recovered back into its prior trading range after testing levels near $60,000, with some traders watching $64,000 as the key support zone. A sustained hold above that level could keep short-term upside active, while a breakdown would return focus to lower targets.

Wintermute Says BTC Bottom Is Not Confirmed

Wintermute said Bitcoin’s move away from the low-$60,000s should be viewed as stabilization rather than proof of a structural bottom. The firm pointed to the lack of clear reversal in ETF flows, stablecoin inflows, and digital asset treasury activity.

Source: X

The warning comes after Bitcoin fell from around $82,000 to below $60,000 during the latest correction phase. That decline pushed traders into derivatives markets, while spot demand remained less active.

Some market participants still expect a relief move if Bitcoin continues holding above $64,000. Traders are also watching macro events, including the Federal Reserve meeting and the expected reopening process for the Strait of Hormuz, both of which could influence oil, yields, and broader risk sentiment.

Lower oil prices and declining yields have supported the case for a short-term risk asset recovery. Bitcoin also has two CME gaps near $74,000 and $79,000, which some traders are monitoring as possible upside levels if the market strengthens.

Derivatives Activity Rises as Spot Demand Lags

Recent trading data shows that Bitcoin selloffs continue to drive heavy speculative activity in futures markets. Binance futures volumes climbed as high as $39.5 billion and $35.5 billion on separate days since the start of June.

A similar pattern appeared in early February, when Bitcoin also dropped below $60,000 and Binance futures volume exceeded $42 billion in one session. The latest surge has pushed Binance’s cumulative Bitcoin futures trading volume close to $800 trillion.

Spot trading has increased, but remains lower than prior stress periods. Average daily Binance spot volume rose from about $1.5 billion to around $4 billion to $5 billion, still below the February spike when spot volume moved above $10 billion.

Source: X

This gap between futures and spot activity suggests that the recent bounce may have been supported partly by leveraged positioning rather than broad cash-market demand. A recovery driven mainly by leverage can remain more fragile than one supported by sustained spot buying and inflows.

Long-term holders are still selling some Bitcoin, but only a small amount is reportedly moving to exchanges. That pattern suggests many holders are not rushing to sell through centralized platforms, even as the market remains below recent highs.

Analysts Watch $64K Support and $50K Risk

The technical outlook remains divided. Some traders argue that Bitcoin invalidated further downside momentum after moving back into its range, with $64,000 acting as the key level to defend for long positions.

Others remain focused on a possible retest of the $70,000 to $72,000 zone. If Bitcoin rejects from that area and closes below key higher-timeframe support, bearish analysts say the next major target could sit near $50,000.

The Cumulative Value Days Destroyed metric, which marked a prior major Bitcoin bottom, is currently near $48,000, according to market commentary. That level has become another reference point for traders assessing whether a deeper capitulation move remains possible.

For now, Bitcoin’s next direction depends on whether ETF inflows, stablecoin liquidity, and spot market demand return with enough strength to support the rebound. Wintermute’s warning keeps the $50,000 range in focus, while bulls need Bitcoin to hold above $64,000 and reclaim higher resistance near $70,000 to $72,000.