Johor election may hinge on voters in 21-39 age bracket

PETALING JAYA: Voters aged 21 to 39 make up more than 1.13 million of the 2.72 million-strong electorate in the Johor election, making them one of the most crucial voting blocs for political parties to win over, according to analysts.

Tawfik Yaakub of Universiti Malaya said the figures show that parties must offer policies that genuinely address the needs of voters in this age group, many of whom are at a stage in life where economic stability, employment, housing, and family commitments are key concerns.

While Undi18 remains significant for bringing new voters into the political system, Tawfik said those aged 18 to 20 account for only 165,386 voters, or about 6.1%.

“If parties focus too heavily on TikTok, Instagram, or youth-oriented rhetoric without offering solutions to the real-life challenges faced by those aged 21 to 39, they risk alienating the largest voting bloc in Johor.

“Issues such as the cost of living, wages, affordable housing, stable employment, and the cost of raising a family are far more relevant to voters’ daily lives than just social media campaigns,” he told FMT.

Tawfik said Malay, religious, and ethnic identity sentiments remain important factors, particularly in rural and Malay-majority constituencies.

“Identity politics continues to shape party loyalty and voting behaviour. But in a challenging economic environment, such sentiments alone may not be enough to secure victory without policy offerings that directly improve people’s lives,” he said.

According to the electoral roll for the state election on July 11, voters aged 30 to 39 form the largest age group with 587,888 voters, followed by those aged 21 to 29 (544,657), 40 to 49 (492,922), 50 to 59 (393,780), 60 to 69 (308,313), 70 to 79 (172,402), 18 to 20 (165,386), 80 to 89 (50,441), and 90 and above (12,137).

Ariff Aizudin Azlan of Universiti Teknologi Mara said the cost-of-living issue might not necessarily dominate the campaign narrative, particularly for Barisan Nasional (BN), which has governed Johor for decades.

He said that aggressively highlighting the cost of living could expose BN to criticism of its own governing record.

Instead, Ariff said issues surrounding Malay-Muslim interests and narratives portraying DAP as a threat are likely to remain central campaign themes, especially in efforts to consolidate Malay support.

“The most effective strategy may be to emphasise Malay-Muslim interests and invoke narratives such as the ‘DAP bogeyman’. It is often portrayed as a threat to the Malay-Muslim power structure,” he said.

Ariff also noted that in the first-past-the-post electoral system, any voter segment can prove decisive, particularly in closely contested seats.

He said election outcomes are not determined by any single age group, as even a one-vote margin can change the result.

“In this system, any segment of voters, regardless of age or demographic background, has the potential to influence the outcome at the final moment,” he said.