Tesla (TSLA) Stock: Is Musk’s 2027 Robotaxi Promise Enough to Buy Now?

TLDR

• Elon Musk said Robotaxi and unsupervised FSD revenue will be “material in a significant way” in 2027
• Tesla currently trades at a P/E ratio of around 344, with a stock price near $373
• Multiple institutional investors increased their Tesla positions in Q1 2026
• Analyst consensus sits at “Hold” with an average price target of $403.07
• Tesla faces a wrongful-death lawsuit and NTSB probe tied to an Autopilot/FSD crash in Texas

Tesla (TSLA) stock is trading near $373, carrying a market cap of $1.41 trillion and a price-to-earnings ratio of 344. That valuation tells you everything about how the market views this company — not as a car maker, but as a bet on autonomous driving and AI.

Tesla, Inc., TSLA

On the Q1 2026 earnings call in April, Musk said unsupervised FSD and Robotaxi revenue would likely be “material in a significant way” in 2027. He also noted Tesla hopes to have Robotaxi running in around a dozen states by end of 2026.

Right now, Robotaxi is operating without supervision in Austin, Dallas, and Houston. Revenue from that fleet is negligible at this stage.

Tesla has 1.28 million FSD supervised subscriptions as of March 31. If all paid $99 per month, that’s roughly $1.5 billion annually — a small number relative to total revenue of $22.39 billion last quarter.

Q1 2026 EPS came in at $0.41, beating the $0.39 consensus estimate. Revenue was up 15.8% year-over-year, though it missed analyst expectations of $22.96 billion.

For context, Musk has a track record that warrants some skepticism. A New York Times study found he hits his own predictions only 19% of the time.

Institutional Investors Are Still Buying

RFG Advisory LLC raised its Tesla position by 29.4% in Q1, adding 6,367 shares for a total of 28,020 worth around $10.4 million. OP Asset Management took a new stake worth roughly $201.9 million. Assenagon Asset Management grew its holding by 78.2%, adding over 1.7 million shares. Institutional investors now own 66.2% of TSLA stock.

That’s a lot of conviction from the big money crowd, even at these valuations.

On the positive side, Tesla announced an energy partnership with Sunrun and Renew Home to aggregate more than 16 gigawatts of flexible residential power. Giga Berlin is also reportedly targeting 7,500 vehicles per week by October.

The Trump administration proposed removing the brake pedal requirement for autonomous vehicles, which would benefit Tesla’s Robotaxi program if adopted.

Legal and Analyst Pressure Remains

Tesla is facing a wrongful-death lawsuit tied to a fatal Texas crash linked to Autopilot/FSD. The NTSB has opened a probe into the incident, adding legal and reputational risk to its driver-assistance business.

Insider activity is worth watching too. Director Kathleen Wilson-Thompson sold 26,409 shares on April 30 at $378.11. CFO Vaibhav Taneja sold 2,606 shares on June 8 at $402.20. Combined insider sales over the last 90 days total 57,824 shares worth over $21.6 million.

On the analyst front, Deutsche Bank and Sanford C. Bernstein both moved to “Buy” in early June. Cantor Fitzgerald and Roth MKM also maintain buy ratings. HSBC and JPMorgan are holding their “Hold” ratings.

The consensus across 45 analysts is “Hold,” with an average price target of $403.07. The 52-week range runs from $288.77 to $498.83.

Sell-side analysts expect full-year 2026 EPS of $1.19.

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