Skyrizi Just Hit $4.5 Billion in a Single Quarter, AbbVie’s Humira Problem Is Solved

Key Stats for AbbVie Stock

• 52-Week Range: $181.75 – $253.35
• Current Price: $253.35
• Street Mean Target: ~$254
• TIKR Model Target: ~$347
• Annualized IRR: ~7%
• Q1 2026 Revenue: $15.0B (+12.4% YoY)
• Dividend Yield: 2.8%

See the full Skyrizi and Rinvoq growth trajectory and how they’re reshaping AbbVie’s income statement on TIKR. Explore ABBV financials on TIKR for free →

The Humira Cliff Became a Humira Speed Bump

AbbVie (ABBV) is a pharmaceutical company focused on immunology, neuroscience, oncology, and aesthetics. For most of the last decade, the investment thesis rested almost entirely on a single drug: Humira, a treatment for rheumatoid arthritis and a range of inflammatory conditions, which became the world’s best-selling drug.

When Humira lost U.S. patent exclusivity in early 2023, analysts spent years modeling how fast the revenue cliff would arrive. What AbbVie delivered instead was a carefully orchestrated counter-offensive.

Skyrizi, which treats psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, Crohn’s disease, and ulcerative colitis, generated $4.483 billion in Q1 2026 alone, up 31% year over year. Rinvoq, which addresses rheumatoid arthritis, atopic dermatitis, and inflammatory bowel disease, added another $2.119 billion in sales, up 23%.

Together, they generated more quarterly revenue than Humira ever did at its peak. CEO Robert A. Michael noted that the company is “off to an excellent start in 2026, with first-quarter results exceeding our expectations.”

The revenue chart captures the shape of the transition. After dipping from $58.1 billion in 2022 to $54.3 billion in 2023 at the peak of Humira biosimilar erosion, revenue has climbed back steadily, reaching $61.2 billion in 2025.

Street estimates project around $67 billion in 2026 and steady compounding toward roughly $84 billion by 2030. That trajectory does not require heroic assumptions.

It simply requires Skyrizi and Rinvoq to continue gaining share in their approved indications, while the neuroscience portfolio, which grew 26% in Q1 to $2.875 billion, continues to build.

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EPS Troughed at $10 in 2025. The Forward Curve Looks Like a Different Company

The earnings chart is where the investment thesis becomes most legible.

Normalized EPS compressed from $13.77 in 2022 to $10.00 in 2025 as the Humira revenue base eroded faster than the replacement drugs could fill the gap.

The Street now models a sharp reversal: around $14.25 in 2026, climbing to $16.29 in 2027, and approaching $20 by 2030. The 2026 estimate alone would represent a new all-time high for AbbVie’s earnings power, driven by Skyrizi’s expanding indications, Rinvoq’s penetration in gastroenterology, and operating leverage on a largely fixed cost base.

AbbVie raised its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $14.08 to $14.28 after Q1, an increase from prior guidance. For the first time, Botox Therapeutic crossed $1 billion in a single quarter, adding another growth vector that sits entirely outside the immunology debate.

The neuroscience drugs Vraylar, Ubrelvy, and Qulipta are all growing at double-digit rates, providing a genuinely diversified earnings base that did not exist five years ago.

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TIKR’s Model Targets Around $347, Supported by Margin Expansion and Steady Compounding

The TIKR valuation model targets approximately $347 per share for AbbVie, implying a total return of around 37% over 4.5 years and an annualized IRR of roughly 7%.

The mid-case assumptions are measured and credible: around 4% annual revenue growth and net income margins expanding toward 42%, supported by a shift in revenue mix toward higher-margin drugs such as Skyrizi and Rinvoq.

The Street’s mean target of approximately $254 is right at the current price, suggesting the market has largely repriced the Humira recovery but has not yet given AbbVie full credit for the earnings acceleration implied by the forward curve.

The 2.8% dividend yield, backed by a payout ratio that management has consistently supported through the biosimilar transition, adds a real income component to what would otherwise be a pure growth-recovery story.

The primary risk is pipeline execution: if Skyrizi or Rinvoq face unexpected competition or regulatory setbacks in new indications, the EPS recovery trajectory slows materially.

Should You Invest in AbbVie Inc.?

AbbVie has navigated one of the most anticipated patent cliffs in pharmaceutical history and emerged with a stronger, more diversified revenue base than it had before.

The stock trades near fair value on consensus estimates, but the forward EPS trajectory and margin expansion potential suggest the market may be underestimating the durability of what Skyrizi and Rinvoq have built.

TIKR gives you the tools to track the drug-by-drug revenue data and model assumptions that will determine whether this compounding story stays on track.

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Disclaimer:

Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!