Does Bitcoin (BTC) Like July? Historical Data Offers Encouragement, But Analysts Say the Opposite: “The Situation is Very Bad!”

Bitcoin most recently experienced a nearly 20% drop in June, closing below its 200-week moving average for the first time since 2022.

With BTC falling below $58,000 in the recent decline, investors have pinned their hopes for a rise on the coming days and months.

At this point, investors are wondering how Bitcoin will perform in July. Does Bitcoin like July? How has it performed in previous Julys? Let’s look at the answers to these questions.

How Did Bitcoin Perform in Previous July Months?

When we look at Bitcoin’s performance over the years and months, we notice that certain months see a concentration of declines, while other months see a concentration of increases.

Historical data shows that, in general, January, March, August, and September are months of decline, while February, July, October, and November are months of growth.

At this point, according to historical data, Bitcoin has only closed lower in July four times in the last 13 years. The data shows that between 2013 and 2025, Bitcoin closed higher in July nine times and lower four times.

The highest monthly gain was recorded in 2020 at 24.03%, while the largest loss was 9.69% in 2014, raising hopes for an uptrend. However, historical data is not definitive, and many macroeconomic variables influence the Bitcoin price in the current environment, making it difficult to predict its future direction.

The Current Situation in Bitcoin is Very Bad!

While the direction Bitcoin’s price will take in July remains uncertain, analysts believe market conditions for BTC are worse than during the correction in February.

According to popular on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr., the current state of the Bitcoin market is worse than it was during the correction period in February.

This is attributed to an increase in BTC inflows to exchanges and investors selling at a loss.

In his latest blog post, the analyst noted that BTC deposits on exchanges have risen to 122,000 BTC, significantly above the annual average of 82,000 BTC.

According to the analyst, the upward trend in BTC inflows to exchanges signals increasing selling pressure and a decline that could push the price even lower.

Furthermore, the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) dropped to 0.99, falling below the baseline level of 1.0. This indicates that investors are now selling their BTC at a loss.

Analyst Axel Adler argues that for a recovery in Bitcoin and the broader market to occur, the SOPR ratio must first rise above 1.0 and exchange inflows must stabilize around their annual averages.

*This is not investment advice.

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